Water Supply Analysis

The following summarizes calculations made to comply with California Code of Regulations (“CCR”) Article 22.5 – Drought Emergency Water Conservation Regulations and in particular CCR Section 864.5. - Self-Certification of Supply Reliability for Three Additional Years of Drought (collectively “Drought Regulations”).  The Drought Regulations require Burlingame to determine the water conservation standard to be used in lieu of the previous 16% water conservation standard.  The methodology for the determination of the new water conservation standard is established in the Drought Regulations and is calculated as follows:

  1. The total potable water demand for each of the next three years will be the average annual total potable water production for the years 2013 and 2014; and
  2. Water supply during each of the next three years is equivalent to the hydrologic conditions during water years 2013-2015.

The total potable water demand in the Burlingame service area for calendar years 2013 and 2014 is shown in the table below.  The total water potable demand is based on purchases from San Francisco Public Utilities Commission (“SFPUC”) and adjusted for water transferred to other agencies.

Total Potable Water Demand

CY 2013          CY 2014          Average 2013-2014     
1561 MG
4760 AF
    1257 MG
3857 AF
    1409 MG
4323 AF

AF=acre feet
CY=calendar year
MG = million gallons

On June 9, 2016, the SFPUC provided a memorandum the anticipated available supply from the Regional Water System to the SFPUC customer agencies.   For the purposes of this forecast, SFPUC assumed that the hydrologic conditions for the next three years will be the same as those for 2013, 2014, and 2015, with respect to annual flows.  Additional details regarding the assumptions used in SFPUC’s analysis of available supply over the next three years are available on the SFPUC website.  

Based on SFPUC’s analysis, the available water supply is anticipated to be greater than demand for three additional years of drought. In the third year, available water supply for the Regional Water System is 982 thousand acre feet (“TAF”) and the demand is anticipated to be 241 TAF. 

The projected supply availability for 2017 through 2019, based on the analysis provided by SFPUC for the City of Burlingame is shown below.

Projected Supply Table

 Water Year 2017     Water Year 2018      Water Year 2019     
1,461.6 MG
4,485 AF
1,461.6 MG 
4,485 AF
1,461.6 MG 
4,485 AF

The difference between the projected supply and demands determines Burlingame’s new water conservation standard.  To the extent there is insufficient supply to meet demand, the water conservation standard is set at the percent reduction necessary so available supplies are adequate to meet demands.  The table below summarizes the water supply and demand and associated excess water supply availability.

Supply and Demand

Average Projected Demands (2013-2014) - 1,409 MG
Projected Supply - 1,462 MG
Excess Available Water Supply - 52.6 MG

Based upon the projected supplies and demands, it is estimated that Burlingame will have approximately 4% greater water supply available than the estimated water demand.  Based upon the requirements of the of the Drought Regulations, Burlingame’s required target water use reduction is zero (0) percent.